Ginger Mail
10yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 106
Ayr · '3B Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Ayr | Bruce Lynn | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-03-20 | Musselburgh | Bruce Lynn | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Ayr | Bruce Lynn | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kelso | Bruce Lynn | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-23 | Doncaster | Bruce Lynn | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Newcastle | Danny McMenamin | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2024 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/12/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 01/01/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 20/01/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/03/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |