1
Inappropriate
5yo Gelding · 12-1 · OR 111
Ayr · '3B Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Wolverhampton | Greg Fairley | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Market Rasen | Sean Quinlan | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | Sean Quinlan | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | Greg Fairley | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | Greg Fairley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | C J Whiteley | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 13/10/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |