11
Jolyjump
7yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 95
Ayr · '3B Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Perth | Ben Smith | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Cartmel | Nathan Moscrop | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-05-13 | Worcester | Caoilin Quinn | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Plumpton | Caoilin Quinn | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-17 | Southwell | Caoilin Quinn | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-03-06 | Fontwell | Caoilin Quinn | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-11 · tight 72/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength19%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2024 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 15/11/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/12/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 06/03/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 17/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 20/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 13/05/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 29/06/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/09/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |