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3

Liberty Coach

5yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 106

Ayr · '3B Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long way below his useful Flat form despite finishing third on half his hurdling starts to date. Easy to put a line through his sole previous handicap start (heavy) in this sphere. Could well make more impact under less testing conditions here, with promising claimer taking over on return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Chester 11/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 92 · 1m2f70y Gd 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/07/2025 · OR 92 par11/073OR 922 @ Chelmsford City 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 91 · 1m2f Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 91 par3 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 91 · 1m3f23y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 91 par28/083OR 912 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 90 · 1m2f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 90 par4 @ Wetherby 06/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 1546/1244 @ Wetherby 27/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m Sft 1543 @ Doncaster 23/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m128y Sft 156 · HIGHER CLASS23/0134 @ Sedgefield 10/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 112 · 2m178y Goo 159 · below its mark10/03/2026 · OR 112 par4 @ Perth 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 108 · 2m47y Gd 158 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 108 par2/074OR 108projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02PerthHarry Cobden43rd3rd0
2026-03-10SedgefieldC O'Farrell43rd3rd0
2026-02-13KelsoR P McLernon40
2026-01-23DoncasterCraig Nichol36th5th+1
2025-12-27WetherbyCraig Nichol43rd3rd0
2025-12-06WetherbyR P McLernon411th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0718/0923/012/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20257th17/255%0%-0.55
07/08/20253rd8/158%78%+0.20
28/08/20255th9/153%60%+0.07
18/09/20259th11/142%33%-0.09
06/12/202511th20/10%23%+0.23
27/12/20253rd22/10%80%+0.80
23/01/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
10/03/20263rd5/493%67%-0.27
02/07/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12