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6

She's Notjoeking

6yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 103

Ayr · '3B Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

86%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory (idled markedly) when runner-up at Hexham in April. Picked up where she left off when making all (set brisk pace) on reappearance at Perth last time. A 3 lb rise looks about right and no guarantee she comes on significantly for that run.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Musselburgh 21/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 101 · 2m3f171y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2025 · OR 101 par21/032OR 1015 @ Kelso 17/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 98 · 2m2f25y Gd 168 · below its mark17/09/2025 · OR 98 par4 @ Perth 21/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 96 · 2m4f35y Sft 154 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 96 par21/104OR 965 @ Ayr 12/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 95 · 2m3f110y Sft 163 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 95 par4 @ Kelso 29/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 95 · 2m2f25y Goo 143 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 95 par29/124OR 955 @ Newcastle 21/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 94 · 2m190y GS 162 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 94 par5 @ Ayr 06/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 2m Sft 168 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 100 par6/035OR 1004 @ Hexham 13/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 2m48y Goo 163 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 100 par4 @ Perth 15/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 2m47y Sft 148 · beat its mark15/10/2026 · OR 100 par15/104OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15PerthD R Fox41st1st0
2026-04-13HexhamConner McCann42nd2nd0
2026-03-06AyrConner McCann53rd4th−1
2026-02-21NewcastleConner McCann51st2nd−1
2025-12-29KelsoP W Wadge44th4th0
2025-11-12AyrP W Wadge53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0312/116/0315/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 86/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20254th6/168%57%-0.11
17/09/20254th3/184%67%-0.18
21/10/20254th11/271%63%-0.09
12/11/20253rd10/147%85%+0.37
29/12/20254th10/382%63%-0.20
21/02/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
06/03/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
13/04/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
15/10/20261st12/137%100%+0.63