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Vampire Slayer

6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 108

Ayr · '3B Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a long losing stretch prior to winning back-to-back handicaps at Sedgefield/Catterick. Finished last season with fine ½-length second in Go North Final handicap at Musselburgh. Arrives following an encouraging pipe-opener on the Flat, though dry forecast probably isn't ideal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Perth 21/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 97 · 2m47y Sft 166 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 97 par21/105OR 975 @ Sedgefield 13/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 95 · 2m3f188y Sft 166 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 95 par6 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m4f98y Std 136 · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 58 par9/126OR 585 @ Catterick 21/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 92 · 1m7f156y Sft 164 · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 92 par5 @ Sedgefield 04/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 96 · 2m178y Goo 164 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 96 par4/025OR 964 @ Carlisle 16/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 105 · 2m1f Sft 161 · below its mark16/02/2026 · OR 105 par2 @ Musselburgh 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 105 · 2m1f87y GS 152 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 105 par20/032OR 1056 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m3f15y Sft 134 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Ayr 08/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 55 · 1m5f26y Hvy 130 · beat its mark08/10/2026 · OR 55 par8/106OR 55projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08AyrShane Gray62nd4th−2
2026-09-02HamiltonShane Gray68th10th−2
2026-03-20MusselburghCallum Bewley22nd0th+2
2026-02-16CarlisleCallum Bewley43rd3rd0
2026-02-04SedgefieldCallum Bewley51st2nd−1
2026-01-21CatterickCallum Bewley51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1021/0120/038/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/10/20255th18/15%64%+0.58
13/11/20255th20/10%56%+0.56
09/12/20258th13/266%36%-0.29
21/01/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
04/02/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
16/02/20263rd7/163%85%+0.21
20/03/20262nd16/116%92%+0.77
02/09/20268th10/147%0%-0.47
08/10/20262nd14/126%75%+0.49