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3

He's Bresilian

6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 119

Ayr · Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of a Newcastle maiden and Carlisle handicap hurdles over 17f last season. Switches to fences on reappearance. Has gone well fresh before.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wetherby 23/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m Sft 15623/0144 @ Newcastle 22/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 1614 @ Hexham 25/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 114 · 2m48y Goo 159 · below its mark25/03/2025 · OR 114 par25/034OR 1144 @ Kelso 25/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 114 · 2m51y Goo 158 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 114 par4 @ Wetherby 26/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 111 · 2m3f154y Sft 169 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 111 par26/114OR 1114 @ Newcastle 11/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 108 · 2m190y Goo 158 · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 108 par4 @ Ayr 13/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 108 · 2m Hvy 167 · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 108 par13/014OR 1084 @ Carlisle 16/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 110 · 2m1f Sft 166 · beat its mark16/02/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Hexham 25/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 119 · 2m48y Sft 167 · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 119 par25/034OR 119projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-25HexhamC O'Farrell43rd4th−1
2026-02-16CarlisleSean Quinlan41st2nd−1
2026-01-13AyrSean Quinlan42nd3rd−1
2025-12-11NewcastleSean Quinlan41st2nd−1
2025-11-26WetherbySean Quinlan46th7th−1
2025-10-25KelsoSean Quinlan43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0125/1013/0125/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20253rd50/10%78%+0.78
22/02/20253rd13/891%78%-0.14
25/03/20252nd7/282%88%+0.06
25/10/20253rd18/581%85%+0.04
26/11/20256th11/142%38%-0.05
11/12/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
13/01/20262nd15/890%88%-0.03
16/02/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
25/03/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04