2
Soldante
8yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 122
Ayr · Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C10.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -7.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | Kevin Healy | BHA112 | 1st | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | Eoghan Finegan | BHA113 | 5th | 15th | −8 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | Eoghan Finegan | BHA104 | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | Kevin Healy | BHA105 | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | Eoin Walsh | BHA105 | 3rd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | Eoin Walsh | ? | 3rd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 19/01/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.29 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 76% | +0.24 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |