4
The Hatchet
6yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 114
Ayr · Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Perth | Jack Power | 4 | −1 | ||
| 2026-03-14 | Newcastle | Jack Power | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Newcastle | Jack Power | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | Jack Power | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-12 | Ayr | Jack Power | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Perth | Jack Power | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 62/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -9.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 25/04/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 12/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 85% | -0.13 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 1/2 | 97% | 33% | -0.64 |