IvyArcIvyArc
1

Bollin Matilda

8yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 95

Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

68%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is consistent as they come at this level and she gained due reward when resuming winning ways at Musselburgh (3m) in March. Found only one far less exposed too good at Perth (3m) a month later and she merits consideration for all this is her first start for 6 months.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Perth 24/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 85 · 2m7f207y Sft 155 · beat its mark24/04/2024 · OR 85 par24/045OR 854 @ Ayr 11/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 92 · 3m70y Sft 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/02/2025 · OR 92 par5 @ Ayr 01/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 88 · 3m70y Hvy 156 · below its mark01/12/2025 · OR 88 par1/125OR 885 @ Musselburgh 22/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 86 · 2m7f180y Goo 151 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 86 par5 @ Wetherby 22/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 89 · 3m26y Sft 158 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 89 par22/015OR 895 @ Musselburgh 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 87 · 2m7f180y Sft 155 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 87 par4 @ Ayr 07/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 89 · 2m5f91y Sft 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 89 par7/034OR 892 @ Musselburgh 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 88 · 2m7f180y GS 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Perth 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 95 · 2m7f207y Goo 160 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 95 par22/045OR 95projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-22PerthMiss J Walton52nd2nd0
2026-03-20MusselburghMurray Dodd21st-3th+3
2026-03-07AyrTheo Gillard42nd1st+1
2026-02-15MusselburghTheo Gillard52nd2nd0
2026-01-22WetherbyTheo Gillard54th4th0
2025-12-22MusselburghTheo Gillard53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0422/127/0322/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength84%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20241st10/382%100%+0.18
11/02/20256th12/137%58%+0.21
01/12/20257th12/137%33%-0.04
22/12/20253rd11/142%83%+0.41
22/01/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
15/02/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
07/03/20262nd6/492%67%-0.25
20/03/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
22/04/20262nd2/189%89%-0.01