11
Bray Dale
9yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 71
Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Hexham | Bruce Lynn | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Ayr | Dominic Hislop | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-10 | Ayr | Joshua Thompson | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ayr | Peter Kavanagh | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-01 | Ayr | Bruce Lynn | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Ayr | Ross Chapman | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2022 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/02/2023 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/01/2025 | 7th | 300/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/02/2025 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/03/2025 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 12/11/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 01/12/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 10/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |