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5

Ck O'mara

5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 87

Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Was well backed and left previous efforts behind when making second handicap start a winning one over C&D in March. Below that level next time but back on track when fourth at Perth (3m) in April. Remains unexposed as a stayer and there could well be more to come this season.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 01/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS1/1144 @ Ayr 01/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 2m Hvy 154 · HIGHER CLASS1/1244 @ Ayr 13/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m Hvy 155 · HIGHER CLASS13/0145 @ Ayr 10/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 86 · 2m4f100y Sft 158 · below its mark10/02/2026 · OR 86 par10/025OR 865 @ Ayr 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 3m70y Sft 156 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 83 par7/035OR 835 @ Wetherby 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 88 · 3m26y Gd 157 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 88 par27/035OR 885 @ Perth 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 88 · 2m7f207y Goo 153 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 88 par22/045OR 88projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-22PerthMr Sean P O'Connor54th4th0
2026-03-27WetherbyDanny McMenamin56th6th0
2026-03-07AyrBen Smith51st1st0
2026-02-10AyrTom Midgley54th4th0
2026-01-13AyrBen Smith45th4th+1
2025-12-01AyrBen Smith49th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1110/0222/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength83%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/202512th250/10%15%+0.15
01/12/20259th300/10%20%+0.20
13/01/20265th500/10%56%+0.56
10/02/20264th66/10%63%+0.63
07/03/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
27/03/20266th9/276%64%-0.12
22/04/20264th15/261%67%+0.06