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8

Coventry

9yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 83

Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly capitalised on falling mark following 9 months off/breathing operation when landing 12-runner handicap at Perth (2½m) in September. Not in same form when seventh at Carlisle 9 days ago but suspicion the return to 3m will suit and better showing certainly not ruled out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Perth 08/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 97 · 2m7f207y Gd 160 · below its mark08/09/2025 · OR 97 par8/095OR 974 @ Perth 24/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 93 · 2m4f35y Goo 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/09/2025 · OR 93 par5 @ Kelso 05/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 89 · 2m4f189y Gd 158 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 89 par5/105OR 894 @ Perth 21/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 2m4f35y Sft 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 87 par5 @ Ayr 01/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 83 · 3m70y Hvy 151 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 83 par1/125OR 835 @ Hexham 10/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 83 · 2m7f63y Hvy 153 · below its mark10/12/2025 · OR 83 par5 @ Uttoxeter 31/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 82 · 2m7f70y Goo 152 · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 82 par31/125OR 825 @ Perth 24/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 80 · 2m4f35y Goo 148 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 80 par5 @ Carlisle 22/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 83 · 2m3f218y Gd 151 · below its mark22/10/2026 · OR 83 par22/105OR 83projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-22CarlislePeter Kavanagh57th7th0
2026-09-24PerthPeter Kavanagh51st1st0
2025-12-31UttoxeterCharlie Maggs57th7th0
2025-12-10HexhamPeter Kavanagh56th6th0
2025-12-01AyrPeter Kavanagh53rd3rd0
2025-10-21PerthB S Hughes47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0921/1031/1222/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +7.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/20256th11/271%29%-0.42
24/09/20258th33/10%36%+0.36
05/10/20258th11/271%30%-0.41
21/10/20257th10/147%14%-0.33
01/12/20253rd16/116%78%+0.62
10/12/20256th4/179%38%-0.41
31/12/20257th28/10%50%+0.50
24/09/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
22/10/20267th6/168%50%-0.18