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6

Junior Des Mottes

7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 86

Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved a different proposition in refitted cheekpieces when landing back-to-back handicaps at Fakenham/Plumpton in February. Ended time with Nick Scholfield with a solid second at Fontwell (2¾m, soft) in March but let go for only £2000 thereafter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2024 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m2f110y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS22/0844 @ Uttoxeter 25/01/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f168y GS 162 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Chepstow 09/02/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m3f100y Sft 160 · HIGHER CLASS9/0244 @ Ludlow 27/02/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f169y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Ffos Las 22/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 2m7f191y Gd 145 · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 70 par22/055OR 705 @ Fakenham 13/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 69 · 2m7f95y Sft 145 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Plumpton 23/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 76 · 3m217y Sft 151 · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 76 par23/025OR 765 @ Catterick 04/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 76 · 3m1f71y Goo 151 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Fontwell 14/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 85 · 2m5f164y Sft 166 · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 85 par14/035OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-14FontwellJay Tidball52nd2nd0
2026-03-04CatterickJ M Quinlan53rd3rd0
2026-02-23PlumptonJ M Quinlan51st1st0
2026-02-13FakenhamJ M Quinlan51st1st0
2026-01-30Ffos LasLiam Harrison50
2025-05-22Ffos LasC Brace53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0827/0223/0214/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/202411th9/276%23%-0.53
25/01/20257th28/10%14%+0.14
09/02/202511th250/10%23%+0.23
27/02/202510th250/10%18%+0.18
22/05/20253rd9/153%67%+0.14
13/02/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
23/02/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
04/03/20263rd5/696%71%-0.24
14/03/20262nd8/1196%75%-0.21