Maura Jeanne
9yo Mare · 11-11 · OR 92
Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | Callum Bewley | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | Mr Stephen Connor | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Carlisle | Sean Quinlan | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Carlisle | Alan Doyle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Ayr | Alan Doyle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Haydock | Alan Doyle | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 30/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |