Melbourne Ghost
5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 85
Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Kelso | Jamie Hamilton | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Kelso | Craig Nichol | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Newcastle | Craig Nichol | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Ayr | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +20.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 21/02/2026 | 12th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |