10
Reagrove Lord
8yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 73
Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | Jonathon Bewley | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hexham | Callum Pritchard | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-14 | Hexham | Edward Austin | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-03-13 | Hexham | Edward Austin | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-01-28 | Newcastle | Edward Austin | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-01-06 | Ayr | Edward Austin | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2024 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 29/11/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 11/12/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |
| 06/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 28/01/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 30% | -0.44 |
| 13/03/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 14/04/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 70% | +0.28 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |