12
Run Baby Run
5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 67
Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#11
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | D R Fox | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Ayr | William Maggs | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Musselburgh | Ben Smith | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Ayr | Ben Smith | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-12 | Ayr | Jamie Hamilton | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-11-01 | Ayr | Nathan Moscrop | 4 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 11-12 · tight 78/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/02/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 400/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |