Secret Secret
10yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 94
Ayr · Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Perth | Leah Noreci | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | B S Hughes | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | B S Hughes | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Cartmel | B S Hughes | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | B S Hughes | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Cartmel | Charlotte Jones | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 20/04/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |