3
Stars On The Water
2yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 61
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Laurel Park | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +32.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 26/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |