4
This Time For Sure
2yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 81
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Belmont Park | Manuel Franco | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | Adam Beschizza | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Axel Concepcion | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 37/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 03/10/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |