8
Luck Penny
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 60
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Key Cents Stakes · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Belmont Park | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-18 | Belmont Park | Junior Alvarado | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | Edgard Zayas | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +44.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 18/10/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |