1
Saint Dymphna
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 74
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Key Cents Stakes · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | John Velazquez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | James Graham | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |