7
Under The Moon
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Key Cents Stakes · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Belmont Park | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-18 | Belmont Park | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 5-6 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength48%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 16/10/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |