11
Tampa Storm
3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 68
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Belmont Park | Jose Lezcano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | Jose Lezcano | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | Jose Lezcano | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aqueduct | Jose Lezcano | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Aqueduct | Jose Lezcano | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 30/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |