War Profiteer

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 72

Belmont Park · Race 11 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

48%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-18	Belmont Park	Samuel Marin	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-09-24	Belmont Park	Dylan Davis	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-05	Presque Isle Downs	Antonio Gallardo	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-07-15	Presque Isle Downs	Antonio Gallardo	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-06-29	Presque Isle Downs	Israel Rodriguez	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 51/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength46%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/06/2026	2nd	2/1	89%	83%	-0.06
15/07/2026	4th	9/2	76%	25%	-0.51
05/08/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	60%	-0.28
24/09/2026	5th	8/1	58%	64%	+0.06
18/10/2026	4th	10/1	47%	40%	-0.07