Interstatelovesong

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 91

Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARK

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-02-28	Aqueduct	Ricardo Jr Santana	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-02-06	Aqueduct	Ricardo Jr Santana	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2025-12-26	Aqueduct	Ricardo Jr Santana	?	1st	2nd	−1	8.4
2025-11-20	Aqueduct	Ricardo Jr Santana	?	2nd	3rd	−1	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 58/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength48%

Delivery trend -12.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/11/2025	2nd	5/1	74%	75%	+0.01
26/12/2025	1st	4/5	96%	100%	+0.04
06/02/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
28/02/2026	3rd	15/8	90%	50%	-0.40