5
Roman Grace
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | Reylu Gutierrez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | Reylu Gutierrez | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 32/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 08/03/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |