2
Morning Prayer
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 86
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Belmont Park | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | Dylan Davis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Belmont At The Big A | Dylan Davis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 18% | -0.50 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 70% | -0.21 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 04/10/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |