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9

Velocity Girl

3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 9 · OR 69

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 71 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 71 par23/08C6OR 71C6 @ Laurel Park 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 62 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 62 parC6 @ Laurel Park 01/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 64 par1/11C6OR 64C6 @ Laurel Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 1m 124 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 62 parC5 @ Laurel Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 75 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 75 par21/02C5OR 75C5 @ Aqueduct 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 77 par19/07C5OR 77C5 @ Colonial Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 73 · 1m 118 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Belmont Park 24/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 75 par24/09C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Belmont ParkChristopher Elliott?8th8th0
2026-08-14Colonial DownsJohan Rosado?2nd2nd0
2026-07-19Colonial DownsJohan Rosado?5th5th0
2026-03-07AqueductJose Lezcano?5th4th+1
2026-02-21Laurel ParkYomar Ortiz?4th3rd+1
2026-01-09Laurel ParkYomar Ortiz?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/089/0119/0724/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 7-9 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20253rd33/10%75%+0.75
10/10/20255th20/10%64%+0.64
01/11/20254th8/158%57%-0.01
09/01/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
21/02/20264th16/116%0%-0.16
07/03/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
19/07/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
14/08/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
24/09/20268th16/116%13%-0.03