6
Elysian Meadows
5yo Horse · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Belmont Park | Jose Lezcano | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | Eric Cancel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | Eric Cancel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 12/04/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 17/05/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 20/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |