8
Party In The Army
3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Belmont Park | Flavien Prat | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | Kendrick Carmouche | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Aqueduct | Manuel Franco | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Aqueduct | Manuel Franco | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 08/10/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |