Truman's Commander
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 93
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | Edgard Zayas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | Edgard Zayas | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Edgard Zayas | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | Dylan Davis | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | Christopher Elliott | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 14/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 11/01/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |