5
Commerce
3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 90
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | Junior Alvarado | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +10.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |