1
Iron Palace
3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 102
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Belmont Park | Edgard Zayas | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Edgard Zayas | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | Edgard Zayas | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 24/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -24.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 10/10/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |