Lyneham
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 103
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | Manuel Franco | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | C Demuro | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | Tom Marquand | 1 | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | M Guyon | 1 | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | C Soumillon | 1 | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Chantilly | M Guyon | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |