Marchon

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 6

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f 110y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARK

Move▼2

Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-10-11	Chantilly	Aurelien Lemaitre	?	8th	3rd	+4	7.0
2025-04-04	Saint-Cloud	Aurelien Lemaitre	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2025-03-04	Chantilly	P Bazire	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 49/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -28.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/03/2025	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
04/04/2025	1st	9/1	53%	100%	+0.47
11/10/2025	8th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37