Outrunner
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Meadowlands | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | Emmanuel Esquivel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | Paco Lopez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Paco Lopez | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | Jaime Torres | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2025-09-06 | Colonial Downs | Paco Lopez | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |