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3

Bold Fortune

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 3 · OR 77

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 21/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS21/08C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 22/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2024 · OR 79 par22/09C6OR 79BHA86 @ Finger Lakes 21/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark21/10/2024 · OR 86 par21/1086OR 86C5 @ Aqueduct 14/12/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 94 · 7f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/12/2024 · OR 94 par14/12C5OR 94C6 @ Saratoga 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 90 · 6f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 90 par5/09C6OR 90C6 @ Belmont Park 08/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2026 · OR 83 par8/10C6OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08Belmont ParkDylan Davis?3rd1st+2
2026-09-05SaratogaDylan Davis?6th4th+2
2024-12-14AqueductDylan Davis?7th3rd+3
2024-10-21Finger LakesDylan DavisBHA861st2nd−1
2024-09-22Belmont At The Big ADylan Davis?1st-1th+2
2024-08-21SaratogaDylan Davis?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0822/0921/1014/125/098/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 26/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20243rd7/282%75%-0.07
22/09/20241st7/282%100%+0.18
21/10/20241st7/491%100%+0.09
14/12/20247th2/189%14%-0.75
05/09/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
08/10/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06