9

Khozeiress

6yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 93

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 103 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 103 par28/11C6OR 103C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 101 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 101 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 102 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 102 par15/02C6OR 102C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 06/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 103 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 103 parC0 @ Tampa Bay Downs 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f Fas 11825/04C?C6 @ Monmouth Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 105 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 102 par19/07C6OR 102C6 @ Monmouth Park 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 100 · 1m70y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 100 parC8 @ Belmont Park 02/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m 124 · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 96 par2/10C8OR 96projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02Belmont ParkRicardo Jr Santana?7th7th0
2026-09-05Monmouth ParkJose Gomez?4th2nd+2
2026-07-19Monmouth ParkJose Gomez?2nd0th+2
2026-06-13Monmouth ParkSonny Leon?4th2nd+2
2026-04-25Tampa Bay DownsCipriano Gil?2nd2nd0
2026-03-06Tampa Bay DownsSamuel Marin?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/116/0319/072/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength25%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
26/12/20255th9/153%20%-0.33
15/02/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
06/03/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
25/04/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
13/06/20264th3/184%40%-0.44
19/07/20262nd9/153%80%+0.27
05/09/20264th10/382%25%-0.57
02/10/20267th10/147%25%-0.22