Mischief Mania
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 76
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | Francisco Arrieta | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Fair Grounds | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | Edgar Morales | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |