Red State
5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 90
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Belmont Park | Manuel Franco | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Belmont Park | Jose Lezcano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | Ramon Vazquez | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | Jose Ortiz | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/06/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 18/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |