4
Sully
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 82
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | Manuel Franco | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | Luis Saez | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fair Grounds | Marcelino Jr Pedroza | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Fair Grounds | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | Jose Ortiz | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-08-01 | Ellis Park | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2024 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 06/02/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 70% | -0.21 |
| 11/05/2025 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 55% | -0.36 |
| 01/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 83% | -0.15 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |