Toscano
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Belmont Park | Samuel Marin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | Heman Harkie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | Dylan Davis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 07/10/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |