9
A Bourbon For Toby
4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 106
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Knickerbocker Stakes · 1m 1f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Belmont Park | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | Forest Boyce | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |