8
Carcano
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 108
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Knickerbocker Stakes · 1m 1f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | Axel Concepcion | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | Samuel Marin | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | Luis Saez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | Edgar Morales | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | Dylan Davis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2024 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |