Carson's Run
5yo Horse · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 111
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Knickerbocker Stakes · 1m 1f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | Dylan Davis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | Joel Rosario | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | Dylan Davis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | Joel Rosario | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Saratoga | Dylan Davis | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2025-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | Dylan Davis | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 05/10/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 01/12/2024 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 08/06/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |