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7

Cugino

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 109

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Knickerbocker Stakes · 1m 1f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength77%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA103 @ Gulfstream 14/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 103 · 1m110y Fm 124 · beat its mark14/12/2024 · OR 103 par14/12103OR 103C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark19/06/2025 · OR 102 parC0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 108 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 108 par2/08C?OR 108C5 @ Monmouth Park 01/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 111 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 111 parC0 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 109 · 1m3f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 109 par2/11C?OR 109C1 @ Gulfstream 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 107 · 1m1f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 107 parC0 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 112 · 1m1f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 112 par24/01C?OR 112C6 @ Colonial Downs 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 113 · 1m1f Fm 122 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 113 parC6 @ Saratoga 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 113 · 1m1f110y Fm 123 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 113 par21/08C6OR 113projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21SaratogaFlavien Prat?3rd4th−1
2026-07-05Colonial DownsSamuel Marin?3rd4th−1
2026-01-24GulfstreamJohn Velazquez?11th6th+4
2025-12-20GulfstreamFlavien Prat?2nd-3th+4
2025-11-02Belmont At The Big AFlavien Prat?1st-4th+4
2025-09-01Monmouth ParkSamuel Marin?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/121/0924/0121/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/12/20241st13/891%100%+0.09
19/06/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
02/08/20256th15/261%44%-0.16
01/09/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
02/11/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
20/12/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
24/01/202611th8/158%9%-0.49
05/07/20263rd1/195%71%-0.23
21/08/20263rd10/1195%33%-0.62