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6

Ole Crazy Bone

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 114

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Knickerbocker Stakes · 1m 1f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: +2.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Sam Houston Race Park 02/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 108 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark02/03/2025 · OR 108 par2/03C6OR 108C0 @ Keeneland 19/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 112 · 1m4f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/04/2025 · OR 112 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 109 · 1m1f Slo 122 · below its mark26/06/2025 · OR 109 par26/06C6OR 109C5 @ Ellis Park 03/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 109 · 1m2f Fm 122 · below its mark03/08/2025 · OR 109 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 112 · 1m4f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 112 par6/09C?OR 112C6 @ Churchill Downs 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 115 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 115 parC0 @ Saratoga 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 117 · 1m3f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 117 par11/07C?OR 117C0 @ Saratoga 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 117 · 1m4f Yie 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 117 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 116 · 1m4f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 116 par5/09C?OR 116projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kentucky DownsJose Ortiz?8th3rd+4
2026-08-15SaratogaJavier Castellano?6th1st+4
2026-07-11SaratogaFlavien Prat?1st-4th+4
2026-05-21Churchill DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?2nd3rd−1
2025-09-06Kentucky DownsFlavien Prat?1st-4th+4
2025-08-03Ellis ParkJaime Torres?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/033/0811/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
19/04/20257th40/10%45%+0.45
26/06/20252nd6/168%86%+0.17
03/08/20252nd12/137%86%+0.49
06/09/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
21/05/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
11/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
15/08/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
05/09/20268th12/137%13%-0.24