Thundering
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 101
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Knickerbocker Stakes · 1m 1f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | Paco Lopez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | Yedsit Hazlewood | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | Jomar Torres | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | Sonny Leon | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 1/14 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |